Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 21.893012 23.847665 25.958706 28.418578 31.219465 34.325121 38.051084
2026-01-25 18.869998 21.559643 24.671246 28.579418 33.418012 39.295466 47.107886
2026-02-01 16.580781 19.698732 23.518815 28.639655 35.479583 44.541535 57.898035
2026-02-08 14.885334 18.281332 22.653562 28.866120 37.771499 50.611213 71.665967
2026-02-15 13.523004 17.083788 21.868657 29.029351 39.985009 57.123237 88.465449
2026-02-22 12.405362 16.056582 21.149195 29.132086 42.103855 64.055975 108.940088
2026-03-01 11.528924 15.248602 20.614150 29.393451 44.503063 72.151796 135.756344
2026-03-08 10.969913 14.821695 20.567041 30.387993 48.342941 84.140147 178.714443
2026-03-15 10.344586 14.223574 20.172612 30.726122 51.066172 94.916093 227.592830
2026-03-22 9.597795 13.366435 19.265734 30.025935 51.621678 101.166919 269.393096
2026-03-29 9.047305 12.763277 18.702378 29.850339 53.200592 110.530296 333.135685
2026-04-05 8.613790 12.306081 18.329644 29.965633 55.427926 122.610740 426.771192
2026-04-12 7.978488 11.520154 17.399249 29.039913 55.509219 130.073508 522.729972
2026-04-19 7.563670 11.069837 17.021084 29.189220 58.309215 148.132156 744.264035
2026-04-26 7.171606 10.627814 16.617058 29.240574 60.987154 168.381095 1099.965052
2026-05-03 6.839362 10.260863 16.313186 29.466769 64.290907 194.543327 1782.824019
2026-05-10 6.530698 9.909519 16.001625 29.630246 67.553268 224.701165 3145.093205
2026-05-17 6.244105 9.574007 15.685092 29.733025 70.743935 259.340916 6299.581347
2026-05-24 6.000876 9.296725 15.453068 30.000082 74.636864 304.775269 17229.024520
2026-05-31 5.851426 9.177079 15.521514 31.022508 81.640493 385.753365 188571.134001
2026-06-07 5.650148 8.945758 15.336868 31.369771 86.442871 464.730914 NaN
2026-06-14 5.373410 8.554271 14.781844 30.648419 86.827842 506.875803 NaN
2026-06-21 5.163738 8.276631 14.444042 30.467340 89.453023 584.011081 NaN